Analyzed Events

According coronagraph images, the event trajectory is SW. Hence, it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

The event was reported at the Special Report issue 20151228.

This event is related with a solar filament expulsion. The filament was oriented in a NS direction. The filament's initial orientation and it location (30W15N) suggest that it it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

 20160721-0300+/-4h
 450+/-100 km/s

Coronograph images suggest that this is a narrow CME. Its initial trajectory follows a NW direction. Both contidions suggest that it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

Nevertheless, according with the initial conditions of the event, we proceed to calculate its in-situ arrival.

The event was reported at the Special Report issue 20160719.

N/A

The event's source region is on the hidden side of solar disk. Hence, the trajectory of the event is not in directio of Earth. In consequence, this event will not affect the enviopment of Earth.

The event's source region is located in the south-west of solar disc (S07W34). Is highly probably that the lateral region of the solar storm affects the Earth.

The prediction by the WSA-ENLIL model (NOAA-SWPC) suggests that the solar storm arrival will be on July 16th, at 17:00.

CME:

20170908-1240+/-8h
 677+/-130 km/s

Shock:

20170908-1130+/-9h 690+/-150 km/

ISSUED: [06/09/2017-16:27UT]

The event's source region is located in the south-west of solar disc (S08W28). Is highly probably that the lateral region of the solar storm affects the Earth.

It is needed a confirmation for the CME initial speed.

 1500+/-250

-nowcast-

CME: 20201209-1040+/-8h
745+/-170 km/s 

ISSUED: [08/12/2020-17:01 UT]

The source region is located at the south of the solar disk's center (S25W08). It is highly problably that the CME's flank affects the Earth's space neighborghood.

The initial speed used for this forecasting was not definitive.

 1059+/-392

-nowcast-

EMC: 20211030-1900+/-4h
677 +/- 50 km/s.

Shock: 20211030-1600+/-3h
750+/-80 km/s

ISSUED: [29/10/2021-00:30UT]

The source region is located near the solar disk's center  (S28W01). In addition, the orientation of the magnetic flux rope in solar corona makes of this event potentially geoactive if Bz south polarity is dominant in the frontal region of the CME's flux rope.

827+/-288

-preliminar

ISSUED: [22/02/2023-19:23 UT]

The source region of the event is located in the south-western region of the solar disk (S22W18).

The orientation of the magnetic tube in the solar corona, together with the position of the associated active region make it highly probable that the frontal region of the CME will impact the environment of Earth.

Additionally, the initial velocity makes it likely that the CME has an associated shock wave. If this is confirmed, the frontal region of the shock wave will impact the terrestrial space environment.

880+/-300

-preliminar

ISSUED: [11/05/2023-17:25 UT]

A partial halo CME was detected with source region in the northwestern region of the solar disk (N14W34).

The orientation of the magnetic structure that possibly originated the CME, together with the location of the associated active region, make it likely that a flank of the CME will impact the terrestrial space environment.

Additionally, the initial velocity makes it likely that the CME has an associated shock wave. If this is confirmed, a flank of the shock wave will impact the terrestrial space environment.

650+/-80 - preliminar

ISSUED: [29/11/2023-19:08 UT]

A halo-type CME was detected, with a source region in the central area of ​​the solar disk (S20W04). The orientation of the magnetic structure that possibly originated the CME, together with the position of the associated active region make it highly probable that the frontal region of the CME will impact the Earth's environment.

Additionally, the initial velocity of the CME makes it likely the presence of a leading shock wave. If this is confirmed, the frontal region of the shock wave will impact the terrestrial space environment.

The original orientation of the magnetic structure in the solar atmosphere suggests that the event may be geoeffective.

930+/-320 - preliminar

1250+/-450 [CACTus] - Update

ISSUED: [29/11/2023-19:08 UT]
Corrected due to change in V_0: [10/05/2024-17:49 UTC]

The detection of a halo-EMC is reported, wich source region is located near the solar disk's center (S20W04). The orientation and position of the magnetic structure that likely originated the CME make it possible for the frontal region of the CME to impact the Earth during the next days.

Additionally, the CME's initial speed is withing the range for driving a shock wave. If this is the case, is highly possible that the shock's frontal region will hit the Earth in few days.

Finally, the initial orientation at the solar atmosphere of the magnetic structure associated with the event suggests that the CME could be geoeffective.