Analyzed Events

Warnning: SPArToS is an experimental product under validation process.

The Table lists the anayzed events by SPArToS/CiESMEX. The Table shows the detection (date-hour), detection speed, forecasted arrival (date-time and speed), and commentaries. Further details about the table's data coud be found at the page's bottom.

 

Detection V_0 [km/s] Arrival prediction Commentaries
 20150621-0236  1300+/-200 20150622-2100+/-12.4h
 765+/-140 km/s
The event was reported at the Special Report issues 20150621 and 20150621-post-event.
20150622-17:39  1059+/-120  20150624-15:15± 7.3 h
787+/-139 km/s
 The event was reported at the Special Report issues 20150622 and 20150622-post-event.
 20151228-1200  600+/-150  20151231-1700+/-8h
 450+/-100 km/s

According coronagraph images, the event trajectory is SW. Hence, it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

The event was reported at the Special Report issue 20151228.

 20160418-0136  800+/-200  N/A The associated active region was located at N10W66. Hence, it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.
 20160705-2236   760+/-250  N/A 

This event is related with a solar filament expulsion. The filament was oriented in a NS direction. The filament's initial orientation and it location (30W15N) suggest that it it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

 20160717-1336 310+/-60

 20160721-0300+/-4h
 450+/-100 km/s

Coronograph images suggest that this is a narrow CME. Its initial trajectory follows a NW direction. Both contidions suggest that it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

Nevertheless, according with the initial conditions of the event, we proceed to calculate its in-situ arrival.

The event was reported at the Special Report issue 20160719.

20160906-0848 500+/-100

N/A

The event's source region is on the hidden side of solar disk. Hence, the trajectory of the event is not in directio of Earth. In consequence, this event will not affect the enviopment of Earth.

 20170714-0140  800+/-100  20170716-1600+/-10.1h
 570+/-106 km/s
211028-1548 

The event's source region is located in the south-west of solar disc (S07W34). Is highly probably that the lateral region of the solar storm affects the Earth.

The prediction by the WSA-ENLIL model (NOAA-SWPC) suggests that the solar storm arrival will be on July 16th, at 17:00.

20170906-1239 1350+/-200

CME:

20170908-1240+/-8h
 677+/-130 km/s

Shock:

20170908-1130+/-9h 690+/-150 km/

ISSUED: [06/09/2017-16:27UT]

The event's source region is located in the south-west of solar disc (S08W28). Is highly probably that the lateral region of the solar storm affects the Earth.

It is needed a confirmation for the CME initial speed.

 20201207-1636

 1500+/-250

-nowcast-

CME: 20201209-1040+/-8h
745+/-170 km/s 

ISSUED: [08/12/2020-17:01 UT]

The source region is located at the south of the solar disk's center (S25W08). It is highly problably that the CME's flank affects the Earth's space neighborghood.

The initial speed used for this forecasting was not definitive.

 20211028-1548

 1059+/-392

-nowcast-

EMC: 20211030-1900+/-4h
677 +/- 50 km/s.

Shock: 20211030-1600+/-3h
750+/-80 km/s

ISSUED: [29/10/2021-00:30UT]

The source region is located near the solar disk's center  (S28W01). In addition, the orientation of the magnetic flux rope in solar corona makes of this event potentially geoactive if Bz south polarity is dominant in the frontal region of the CME's flux rope.

20230421-1836

827+/-288

-preliminar

EMC: 20230424-10:36+/-14h con una velocidad de 546 +/- 150 km/s.

Choque:
20230424-06:36+/-10h con una velocidad de 644 +/- 120 km/s.

Publicado: [22/02/2023-19:23 UT]

La región fuente del evento se encuentra en la región sur-oeste del disco solar (S22W18). La orientación del tubo magnéticoe en la corona solar, junto con la posición de la región activa asociada hacen altamente problable que la región frontal de la EMC impacte el entorno espacial terrestre.


Adicionalmente, la veloicidad inicial hace probable que la EMC tenga una onda de choque asociada. De confirmarse esto, la región frontal de la onda de choque impactará el ambiente espacial terrestre.

20230509-1900

880+/-300

-preliminar

EMC: 20230512-00:00+/-15.5h con una velocidad de 689 +/- 209 km/s.

Choque:
20230511-16:00+/-15h con una velocidad de 710 +/- 200 km/s.

Publicado: [11/05/2023-17:25 UT]

Se reporta un EMC tipo halo-parcial, con región fuente en la región nor-oeste del disco solar (N14W34). La orientación de la estructura magnética que posiblemente originó la EMC, junto con la posición de la región activa asociada hacen problable que un flanco de la EMC impacte el entorno espacial terrestre.


Adicionalmente, la veloicidad inicial hace probable que la EMC tenga una onda de choque asociada. De confirmarse esto, un flanco de la onda de choque impactará el ambiente espacial terrestre.

20231128-2012

650+/-80 - preliminar

EMC: 20231201-17:40+/-11.5h con una velocidad de 534 +/- 87 km/s.

Choque:
20231201-07:00+/-15h con una velocidad de 541 +/- 100 km/s.

Publicado: [29/11/2023-19:08 UT]

Se reporta un EMC tipo halo, con región fuente en la zona central del disco solar (S20W04). La orientación de la estructura magnética que posiblemente originó la EMC, junto con la posición de la región activa asociada hacen altamente problable que ls región frontal de la EMC impacte el entorno espacial terrestre.


Adicionalmente, la veloicidad inicial de la EMC hace probable que el evento tenga una onda de choque asociada. De confirmarse esto, la región frontal la onda de choque impactará el ambiente espacial terrestre.

La orientación original de la estructura magnética en la atmósfera solar sigieren que el evento puede ser geoefectivo.

 _______________________________________________________________________________

 Details of Table's data

Further details on our forecast system can be found at  the system's description web or by direct communication with the responsible researcher: Dr. Pedro Corona Romero.

 

SCiESMEX | 2016