Warnning: SPArToS is an experimental product under validation process.
SPArToS (from the Spanish for Solar Storms Arrival Prediction System) is an early-alert system to forecast the arrival of coronal mass ejections and associated shock waves to Earth's neighborhood. SPArToS is based on the Piston-Shock model. SPArToS provides to the user the time and date at which a potentially dangerous solar storm would arrive to the Earth's neighborhood.
A list of all our arrival predictions can be found at our analyzed events catalog.
| Detection | V_0 [km/s] | Arrival prediction | Commentaries |
| 20260118-18:12 [LASCO/C2] |
1200+/-200 - preliminar |
CME: |
ISSUED: [19/01/2026-19:12 UTC] A limbo-type CME was detected, with a source region (RA14345) located in the southwest region of the solar disk (S16E25). The orientation and extent of the magnetic structure that originated the EMC, together with the position of the associated active region, make it likely that a CME's flank would impact the Earth's space environment. The estimated initial speed for the EMC suggests that it will drive a shock wave. Therefore, a shock wave is expected to arrive in Earth's space environment prior to the CME arriva. Due to the characteristics of this event, moderated geomagnetic activity (Kp<=8, Dst > -200 nT) is possible. |
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