Warnning: SPArToS is an experimental product under validation process.
SPArToS (from the Spanish for Solar Storms Arrival Prediction System) is an early-alert system to forecast the arrival of coronal mass ejections and associated shock waves to Earth's neighborhood. SPArToS is based on the Piston-Shock model. SPArToS provides to the user the time and date at which a potentially dangerous solar storm would arrive to the Earth's neighborhood.
A list of all our arrival predictions can be found at our analyzed events catalog.
| Detection | V_0 [km/s] | Arrival prediction | Commentaries |
| 20241009-0212 [LASCO/C2] |
1220+/-400 - preliminar [manually] |
CME: 20241011-01:00+/-12h speed 720 +/- 190 km/s. |
ISSUED: [09/10/2024-15:28 UTC]
UPDATE: [09/10/2024-19:30 UTC] -shock forecast added and arrival of CME updated-
The detection of a partial halo-type CME is reported, with a source region close to the central area of the solar disk (N12W18). The orientation of the magnetic structure that possibly originated the CME, together with the position of the associated active region make it highly probable that the frontal region will impact the terrestrial space environment.
Due to the initial velocity of the CME, it is likely that the event will have an associated shock wave. Coronagraph observations confirm this assumption as they indicate the presence of a shock wave possibly driven by the CME. Therefore, the arrival of the frontal region of a shock wave to the terrestrial space environment is expected prior to the arrival of the CME.
The original orientation of the magnetic structure in the solar atmosphere, the arrival velocity and the arrival of the shock wave suggest that the event may be geoeffective (Kp<=8).
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