Analyzed Events

Warnning: SPArToS is an experimental product under validation process.

The Table lists the anayzed events by SPArToS/CiESMEX. The Table shows the detection (date-hour), detection speed, forecasted arrival (date-time and speed), and commentaries. Further details about the table's data coud be found at the page's bottom.

 

Detection V_0 [km/s] Arrival prediction Commentaries
 20150621-0236  1300+/-200 20150622-2100+/-12.4h
 765+/-140 km/s
The event was reported at the Special Report issues 20150621 and 20150621-post-event.
20150622-17:39  1059+/-120  20150624-15:15± 7.3 h
787+/-139 km/s
 The event was reported at the Special Report issues 20150622 and 20150622-post-event.
 20151228-1200  600+/-150  20151231-1700+/-8h
 450+/-100 km/s

According coronagraph images, the event trajectory is SW. Hence, it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

The event was reported at the Special Report issue 20151228.

 20160418-0136  800+/-200  N/A The associated active region was located at N10W66. Hence, it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.
 20160705-2236   760+/-250  N/A 

This event is related with a solar filament expulsion. The filament was oriented in a NS direction. The filament's initial orientation and it location (30W15N) suggest that it it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

 20160717-1336 310+/-60

 20160721-0300+/-4h
 450+/-100 km/s

Coronograph images suggest that this is a narrow CME. Its initial trajectory follows a NW direction. Both contidions suggest that it is unlikly that this event affects the geospace.

Nevertheless, according with the initial conditions of the event, we proceed to calculate its in-situ arrival.

The event was reported at the Special Report issue 20160719.

20160906-0848 500+/-100

N/A

The event's source region is on the hidden side of solar disk. Hence, the trajectory of the event is not in directio of Earth. In consequence, this event will not affect the enviopment of Earth.

 20170714-0140  800+/-100  20170716-1600+/-10.1h
 570+/-106 km/s
 

The event's source region is located in the south-west of solar disc (S07W34). Is highly probably that the lateral region of the solar storm affects the Earth.

The prediction by the WSA-ENLIL model (NOAA-SWPC) suggests that the solar storm arrival will be on July 16th, at 17:00.

20170906-1239 1350+/-200

CME:

20170908-1240+/-8h
 677+/-130 km/s

Shock:

20170908-1130+/-9h 690+/-150 km/

ISSUED: [06/09/2017-16:27UT]

The event's source region is located in the south-west of solar disc (S08W28). Is highly probably that the lateral region of the solar storm affects the Earth.

It is needed a confirmation for the CME initial speed.

 _______________________________________________________________________________

 Details of Table's data

Further details on our forecast system can be found at  the system's description web or by direct communication with the responsible researcher: Dr. Pedro Corona Romero.

 

SCiESMEX | 2016